Behind the propaganda: a glimpse of the real war in Ukraine

As the escalating war in Ukraine takes us closer than ever to nuclear war, CND Vice-Chair Carol Turner writes on the reality of the war and the urgent need for peace negotiations.

‘This senseless war has unlimited potential to do terrible harm – in Ukraine, and around the world. There is only one way to end the suffering in Ukraine – and that is by ending the war.’ – António Guterres, UN Secretary-General, 20 .10.22

Two years on, Guterres’ wise words still go unheeded. The conflict in Ukraine is bringing the world closer to nuclear war than we’ve ever been. Developments in August have moved us one step closer.

Escalation

On 7 August, Ukraine launched a ground offensive inside Russian territory for the first time, after the US and other NATO allies gave the go-ahead for weapons they’ve supplied to be used against military targets within Russia.i As I write, Ukrainian forces are estimated to have penetrated 20 miles across the border into Russia’s Kursk region, striking bridges and pontoons and taking prisoners of war.

The area is sparsely inhabited countryside. Nevertheless, Tass News Agency carries daily information about a mounting toll of Russians killed and injured, and reports over 122,000 civilians evacuated.ii President Vladimir Putin is warning of retaliation.

At the same time as the Ukrainian incursion is taking place, Russia is deepening its hold on the Donbas, and Ukraine’s second city Kharkiv is under heavy bombardment. Russian troops have captured surrounding villages in what is described as one of the most significant ground assaults since its invasion of February 2022.iii

Britain’s role

The UK plays a major role in bringing the world to the brink of the war, egging on President Volodymyr Zelensky and helping arm Ukraine. Britain: iv

• is the third biggest Ukraine donor after the US and Germany
• had pledged over £7 billion of military aid to Ukraine by the time Sunak left office
• has supplied Challenger 2 tanks being used in the Kursk offensive
• was the first country to sign a bi-lateral security agreement with Ukraine, in January this year, and
• is a one of six European countries to host NATO nuclear facilities.

Both Labour and Tory governments have made clear their commitment to NATO and Ukraine, talking up the threat of Russia. Prime Minister Keir Starmer has emphasised a change in government does not mean a change in support for Ukraine.

NATO members account for over 50% of global military expenditure. It is a nuclear-armed alliance with a first use policy, led by the USA, a country which sites its own nuclear weapons across six European states. Russia is the third highest military spender after the US and China, devoting almost 6% of GDP to armaments.v It has an equivalent number of nuclear warheads to the US, and can strike with enormous force.

Zelensky’s goals

With NATO behind him, Zelensky insists that Ukrainian forces will fight Russia until every inch of territory, including the Crimea, comes under Ukrainian rule. Not even the US supports his ambition of incorporating Crimea.

There’s considerable awareness about Russian breaches of international law, but less knowledge about Ukraine’s. The UN High Commissioner for Human Rights, Amnesty International, and Human Rights Watch have all condemned the conduct of Ukrainian forces, including mistreatment of prisoners, extrajudicial punishment, and the use of residential areas for military operations putting civilians in the line of fire.vi

Likewise, Russians’ opposition to the war is trumpeted, while little is said about Ukrainians’ concerns. As the death toll mounts, however, opposition in Ukraine is growing. Earlier this year, Zelensky put the figure for Ukrainian battlefield deaths at 31,000, but refused to say how many had been injured. US figures are higher: 70,000 Ukrainian troops killed and 120,000 wounded.vii

More than 20,000 men are believed to have fled Ukraine to avoid military service. The Guardian reports Ukrainian conscription is ‘chaotic’ and ‘tarnished by corruption’.viii In April a controversial new law lowered the draft age and introduced stringent penalties for evasion.

Putin’s goals

Russia’s strategic concerns are three-fold:

• preventing encirclement by NATO as bordering states join the Alliance
• the safety of Ukraine’s ethnic Russian population, and
• as an almost landlocked country, access to the world’s oceans and seas which it believes is increasingly threatened by the United States.

Putin wants ‘full and consistent compliance with the Minsk Agreements’.ix The war began after the Minsk process broke down and Russia deployed military personnel. Putin accuses Ukraine and its allies of dismantling the Minsk process. He believes Ukraine is seeking to militarise the Donbas.

Since February 2022, China, South Africa, and others have offered help in restarting negotiations. NATO has proved resistant. At Ukraine’s request, Switzerland hosted a peace summit in June this year, based on a plan Zelensky put forward in November 2022. Russia was not invited.

Putin is convinced that NATO is stoking up war in Ukraine, and played a significant part in planning the current incursion into Russian territory.

Averting nuclear war

Like Guterres, CND understands that war in Ukraine has potential for terrible harm to people and planet. Difficult as it may be, the only way to avert this is through patient negotiation.

When a second wave of Cold War aggression was its height in the 1980s, Ronald Reagan and Mikhail Gorbachev opened US-Soviet discussions that led to the Intermediate-Range Nuclear Forces (INF) Treaty. By 1991, over 2,500 nuclear missiles had been eliminated. This bi-lateral agreement to ban ground-launched short and intermediate range nukes kept the peace for three decades, until the US unilaterally withdrew in 2019.

At this time of nuclear danger, it is worth recalling the watchword of Gorbachev and Reagan: a nuclear war cannot be won and must never be fought.